Momentum and saturation
Two to three coffee shops open daily in Paris; this shows the sector’s momentum in France. I view the current expansion as a risky gamble for many operators because Xerfi reports sales volumes are insufficient and turnover per square metre is significantly lower than that of bakeries or fast-food outlets. Around 40% of operators are unprofitable, and the market could reach saturation within the next two years. By the end of 2025, France had approximately 3,500 coffee shops, a 75% growth compared with the beginning of the previous decade. The Starbucks-Columbus Cafe duopoly dominates the market, as each chain operates more than 250 outlets nationwide. This ranking excludes McCafe, which had more than 400 locations as of November 2025. Other players like Club Cafe and French Coffee Shop hold 53 and 51 outlets respectively, while Emilie & the Cool Kids and Etienne Coffee Shop each operate around thirty locations. While coffee shops attract a younger clientele seeking coworking spaces, bistros remain a place for a convivial atmosphere.
Rapid expansion and aggressive pricing
Dunkin’ has grown to 13 outlets in less than a year and aims for 30 locations by the end of the year. More aggressive movement comes from Cotti Coffee, a Hong Kong-based group that launched in France at the start of the year. Cotti Coffee uses a franchise model to reach 28 outlets across Paris and other major cities, though the company Cotti Coffee France, registered in October 2025, operates all of them. While Dunkin’ targets 30 locations by the end of the year, the Chinese chain Cotti Coffee has already opened 28 outlets across Paris and other major cities since it launched in France at the start of the year. Cotti Coffee maintains a low public profile and even declined a request from TF1 to film inside its stores. Cotti’s pricing strategy is aggressive: an espresso costs just 99 cents. Gaelle Pantin-Sohier of IAE Angers says that "only those with a very strong differentiating factor will manage to stay in the market." This competition threatens weaker operators who risk being squeezed out. Even though the market faces saturation, the coffee sector is worth approximately €7 billion, and 81% of French consumers drink between two and three cups of coffee daily, according to OpinionWay.
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