Arabica price fluctuations
Arabica futures reached a two-month high on Wednesday 21 October when the December contract closed at 315.70 cents. The rally materialised at the turn of the third and fourth weeks of October, when the December contract closed at 315.70 cents after seeing gains of 3.7 per cent on Friday 16 October and 3.3 per cent on Monday 19 October. After a brief dip on Tuesday to 311.30 cents, the benchmark resumed its upward trend to finish the run on Wednesday. Profit-taking during the final two trading sessions of the week pushed the contract back down to 307.45 cents, though the week closed 0.6 per cent higher. In New York, certified stocks reached 227,978 bags last Friday, which is dangerously close to the historic lows of mid-September, while 21,081 bags of Brazilian origin remain pending at the Belgian port of Antwerp. Since last Tuesday, the market re-established contango between the first and second positions, and the negative spread between the second and third positions narrowed.
Robusta declines and supply status
The London January contract for Robusta fell to its lowest level since the end of the first ten days of June. This follows a two-week high of $3,480 recorded last Monday, after the contract suffered four consecutive declines. In contrast to the tight New York situation, London certified stocks stood at 6,488 lots on Thursday 22 October, which equals 64,880 tonnes or 1,081,333 bags. This is the highest level for around 13 months. London’s Robusta inventory remains the highest in over a year.
| Metric | Data |
|---|---|
| Arabica Dec Close (21 Oct) | 315.70 cents |
| Arabica Weekly Gain | 0.6 per cent |
| Robusta Jan High | $3,480 |
| London Certified Stocks (22 Oct) | 1,081,333 bags |
| Cecafe Shipments (to 23 Oct) | 3,432,577 bags |
Initial reports indicate that the flowering of the new Arabica crop in Brazil was satisfactory because increased soil moisture from last winter’s off-season rains assisted the crop. The market monitors weather conditions closely through the end of the year because El Nino typically brings high temperatures to the northern coffee belt and wetter weather to the south-east. These weather patterns influence the first reliable estimates of the production potential for the 2027/28 harvest. According to Cecafe, shipments reached a total of 3,432,577 bags as of 23 October.
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