Market expansion and consumer habits
The European branded coffee shop market grew 3.9% to 57,783 outlets in the 12 months to March 2026, adding 2,181 net new stores, despite pressure on household budgets. I see the expansion in Romania, Kazakhstan, and Turkey moving much faster than the European average. Coffee-focused chains expect 4.6% annual growth to hit 41,000 outlets by 2031, though total growth is forecast to reach 69,200 outlets by March 2031. Industry leaders expect footfall to increase over the next year, with 61% of them predicting higher visits. In Turkey, nearly 80% of consumers find coffee shop drink menus exciting, whereas in France, 69% of consumers find menus exciting and that figure rises to 75% among under-35s. Turkish customers spend much time in shops; 67% spent more than 30 minutes in a shop on their last visit. In Germany, consumers spend an average of €9.20 when they buy food and drink, but less than half find food ranges "exciting".
Customization and price split
I see a split between value-led operators like Greggs and Romania’s 5 to go and premium brands such as The Coffee, % Arabica, Hagen, Kalve, and The Miners, which clearly separates market winners. Over 60% of Turkish consumers pay extra for customization like different blends, syrups, or toppings to help build loyalty. In France, 30% of last orders are espresso, while 33% of orders in Germany are cappuccino and nearly 25% of orders in Turkey are Turkish coffee. I also note the price gap, where an average cappuccino costs €4.49 in France but only €2.48 in Greece.
| Region | Average Cappuccino Price |
|---|---|
| France | €4.49 |
| Greece | €2.48 |
Only 49% of French consumers and 45% of German consumers say drinks are good value, compared to 64% in Turkey. In Germany, less than 10% of orders consist of oat milk, whereas 14% of Turkish consumers chose lactose-free milk on their last visit. Specialty coffee remains an interest; 60% of French consumers say buying specialty coffee appeals to them. Turkish customers also spend more time in shops; 67% stayed for more than 30 minutes, while 25% of French visits last less than 10 minutes.
