Rapid expansion of coffee consumption
China’s coffee market reached US$36.9 billion in 2025, more than doubling the US$13.9 billion recorded in 2020. This growth moves the industry toward a projected US$72.8 billion value by 2030. Per capita consumption in 2025 remained below US$50, which is less than one-third of Japanese levels and roughly one-fifth of those recorded in the United States. Rabobank reports that coffee consumption in China has entered a third phase where it moves beyond traditional workplace settings into social and leisure activities, dining out, convenience purchases, and delivery occasions. This shift makes coffee an attractive beverage for tea house chains that now face a mature market.
| Year | Coffee Market Value (USD) |
|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.9 billion |
| 2025 | $36.9 billion |
| 2030 (Forecast) | $72.8 billion |
The industry evolved from an initial phase dominated by functional instant coffee to a second phase defined by improved quality and expanded retail networks for freshly brewed coffee. Modern consumers follow two strategic paths. Companies like Starbucks focus on premiumization and brand heritage to maintain product quality and service. Luckin Coffee and Lucky Cup leverage digitalized systems and compact store formats to accelerate adoption. The 7Fresh Coffee chain uses artificial intelligence and robotics in its 24-hour Beijing stores to prepare standardized drinks in under 30 seconds. On-premises coffee shop growth shows a CAGR of 14.5%, which is lower than the 21.7% CAGR seen between 2020 and 2025.
Tea chains adopt coffee to offset slow growth
Leading tea chains like Mixue, Guming, Chagee, ChaPanda, Auntea Jenny, and Nayuki face a mature market characterized by slowing growth and increasing pressure on store productivity. These chains generated only 9 per cent year-on-year growth in the first half of 2026, a sharp decline from the CAGR of over 30 per cent achieved between 2022 and 2025. Because of this stagnation, tea operators integrate coffee to capture new revenue. Mixue scales its freshly ground coffee presence, reaching 6,000 stores by August 2026 with a target of 14,000 by the end of the year.
Coffee now produces significant revenue for these businesses. Mixue and Lucky Cup report that coffee accounts for 15 per cent of sales, while Goodme outlets see coffee making up 20 per cent of their sales. Guming has already equipped 13,500 outlets with coffee capabilities as of June 2026. This integration works because tea and coffee share target consumers, physical locations, operating models, and delivery methods. Integrating coffee is the only way for these tea chains to maintain their momentum.
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